As the first half of the English Premier League season draws to a close, the title race is already taking shape. Arsenal, the North London heavyweights, sit at the summit of the table with 39 points, just two ahead of the Manchester giants, Manchester City, who have 37.
It is a familiar scenario—tight margins, mounting pressure, and a question that resurfaces every season: does being top at Christmas really point to championship success?
Premier League history offers a mixed answer. Over the past decade, finishing top of the table during the Christmas period has proven decisive only half the time. In five of the last ten seasons, the Christmas leaders went on to lift the trophy. In the other five, the title slipped away to challengers lurking just behind.
A look back tells the story clearly. In the 2016/17 season, Chelsea set the pace at Christmas and maintained their dominance through to May.
Manchester City followed a similar path in 2017/18, leading at Christmas and cruising to the title. The following season, however, saw a twist—Liverpool topped the table during the festive period, only for Manchester City to overtake them and claim the championship.
Liverpool corrected that narrative in 2019/20, leading at Christmas and finally ending their long wait for the title. But consistency proved elusive. In 2020/21, Liverpool were again Christmas leaders, yet Manchester City surged late to take the crown. City repeated the pattern in 2021/22, topping the table at Christmas and finishing as champions.
Recent seasons have been particularly painful for Arsenal. In both 2022/23 and 2023/24, the Gunners sat top during Christmas, only to see Manchester City overpower them in the run-in. The trend was briefly broken in 2024/25 when Liverpool, Christmas leaders once more, carried their momentum all the way to the title.